Concluding remarks - It is so decided

This has certainly has been two interesting weeks. For all the COP15 delegates, for the Copenhagen, for media, for the world and for me. We knew on forehand that it would be tricky to seal an ambitious deal and everything would have to walk hand in hand, and in the right pace, in order to get it done. Looking back, we can see that there was a number of events that went wrong. I will in the end of my post provide you with some links to other analysis so you can see what it looks like in a few selected media. But this is my analysis:

1. The UN system
It is a very rigid system, as usual with UN negotiations. You have to reach consensus in order to advance and if a few countries starts to obstruct, they will set the pace and run the business. The negotiations were also restricted to follow the Bali Action Plan, a roadmap set up two years ago to guide the work towards a new climate agreement.

2. Denmark lacking "fingerspitzgefühl"
You have to be aware that cultural differences are very much present in these kind of negotiations. The first major drawback was when the Developing countries started to feel neglected by the Danish COP presidency. Connie Hedegaard wanted to move quickly and a couple of creative new approaches to a deal started to surface early in week one. The G77 felt side-stepped and made this a democracy issue. If they weren't allowed to participate in the anticipated way, they would start to make trouble.... And they did. And precious time was lost.

3. No chance for "Obama effect".
He, and the other heads of state, had no real chance to resque the process, arriving only in the very final hours of the negotiations. In order for that to happen, the overall situation would have been needed to be less chaotic and an "almost-ready" deal was far from available at that time.

4. Some countries lacking real will for a deal.
The U.S. delegation had too low a bid to contribute with when they arrived, which made them look defensive from start, although the retorics differed quite a bit from that. China had long ago stated that an international binding agreement could not involve them to any significant extent.

So, how does this affect companies like Sweco? Well, Sweco shares the view that was stated by the global business community during the negotiations: An ambitious, clear and longterm deal is needed, would be very beneficial, and that companies play an important role for mitigating and adapting to climate change. At Sweco, we work with sustainable development in all our fields of expertise and clear targets, financial support and technology transfer would strengthen our mission. However, we do not see this as the end of the world, and Sweco is also providing services regarding adaptation to climate change, which will have to be dealt with even more now, lacking the deal that almost everyone wanted. There are also clear signs of a global shift present in Copenhagen that indicates that regardless the outcome of COP15, there are many countries, cities, companies and organisations that will do their share and help society to restructure in a sustainable direction, regardless of the COP15 outcome.

In conclusion, I'm disappointed but not disillusioned. There will also be new opportunities to success further down the road.

More to read:

Some analysis from The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/21/copenhagen-climate-compromise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/20/copenhagen-summit-pact-obama-verdict
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/19/copenhagen-closes-weak-deal
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/how-copenhagen-text-was-changed
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/nu-bliver-verden-varmere
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/24-timers-globalt-politisk-teater
http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MzY5ODg


Press conference before and after.
And what really happened.....

This will be my final post on this blog. Thank you all for following it thank you for all the positive feedback that we have got during these two weeks. Do not hesitate to contact any of us (fornamn.efternamn@sweco.se), do you wish to have more information on how Sweco is working with climate related business. You can also use the Sweco portal email climatehelpdesk@sweco.se. Let's all have a very merry christmas and a prosperous new 2010!
Andreas

The Copenhagen Accord

was the final document that came out of COP15. You can read it here.
The COP was finally closed an hour ago with hand clapping by the delegates that were not sleeping in the plenum.
25 countries and the EU have adopted the Copenhagen Accord. I'll get back with an in-depth analysis of the Accord tomorrow. Even observers have to sleep, you know :-)
Andreas, on the night train back to Jämtland.

Deal or not?

http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=3066

Deal or no deal? I am impressed that environmental issues and green solutions have been in focus for so long! In some senses you can talk of sucess! It might not been written on a contract, but leaders must see the good business in a sustainable and functional environment. We must not forget all of the promising ideas that comes when people are forced to cope with real threaths! There are no nemesis, but all have seen Hybris!

A very small step for mankind but a giant leap for mistrust in leaders

So, things are clearing up after the final battle here in Copenhagen. And the winners are...
Nobody.
What do we know?
- The only deal presented is the weak "non-binding agreement" between USA, China, South Africa and India. There is still confusion whether more countries are in that Copenhagen Accord.
- The EU tried to continue all through the night but without any success. Reinfeldt were clearly disappointed noting that some countries even have pulled back their ambitions relative to where they were before COP15.
- Tuvalu raised a "point of order" card in the night session forcing Denmark to stop the process and thereby enabling several of the G77 countries to cry out their dismay over the devastating results.
- There is probably a new meeting in Bonn within six months.
To conclude, COP15 was a winding road that in the final phase played havoc with the world.
So why did it all fail? Well, I have to (and I will) get back to that in my final post later on.
Are there any small positives signs from Copenhagen to bring home for christmas? Well, certainly. Many of the presented initiatives will march on towards a more sustainable society no matter the outcome of COP15. Many people from around the world have made new contacts and started to cooperate on matters important to their future. And no deal, which this could be seen as, might be better than a weak deal.

Let's think a while about that while the fog dissolves around Bella Center and then we will have a clearer view of the outcome.
/Andreas

Obama's going home...

The last 6 hours have been incredibly turbulent. Apparently things are now dissolving and no agreement will be made.
See all action at:
http://www.berlingske.dk/cop15-opdateringer/obama-forlader-bella-centeret-uden-erklaering

I'll get back with analysis later on.
/Andreas




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No deal

Sorry folks. We're in for a crash.
More on that later.
Maybe no deal is better than a weak deal.
/Andreas



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No strong deal in Copenhagen - Sweco will continue to deliver

We are in the final turbulent hours and a stong agreement seems impossible. There are too many unresolved issues, too much different views on targets but more importantly on procedural matters. Who is going to write and what? Latest news is that the COP15 might be prolonged through the weekend ending on Sunday.
There is a chance of a political agreement without binding targets or measures, but with parties stating their firm commitment (which they actually already have...). Anyhow:
Rest assure that, no matter the outcome of COP15, Sweco will continue to deliver solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, in Sweden, Europe and world wide. We firmly believe in sustainable development and will actively contribute to it.
Andreas

Obama is in Da house

OK, so he is definitely not coming to a ready-made table. He will have to roll out the cutlery himself...
I've been attending the BINGO briefing which just concluded at the Crowne Hotel (next to Bella Center). Apparently, those reporting from our team from inside the building were pessimistic. Not much came out of the last plenary sessions. Some say that it is apparently that some countries simply just do not want an agreement. In the different task forces (mitigation, technology transfer etc etc) there is progress being made in 2 of 12 areas. Other areas made it half-where and the tasks were moved to ministerial level. There is also a huge discrepancy between negotiators and their state leaders. They are very seldom connected in a good way. So, is there any hope left. Yep, a little. Sweden ask to move issues to a political level decision and on that level things can move a lot faster.
Let's see what Obama can contribute with.
/Andreas

Go for it!

I can't believe that, in these final hours, the majority of the statements are still on the theme: 'We have to do it' or 'Think of our children' or 'compare our fine planet to Mars, we cannot live there' etc etc...
I say: Do it the Sweco way: Stop talking, move into action. DO IT!

Current odds for an agreement:
Yes:60%. No:40%.
Stay very tuned. We're in tiebreak now....
/Andreas




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New rules :-)

Finally, something positive after two days of negotiations turbulence!
The Danish have decided to subdivide negotiations into two groups, headed by Connie Hedegaard. The will only work with the two official drafts of the text and no new documents will be allowed. This is to get G77 to start moving and assure them of not side-stepping the democratic process. This new system also limits the risk of state of heads coming in and unexpectedly trying to alter the process in the last minute, which is very positive. The High-level segment of COP15 is temporarily suspended in order to gain speed for the remaining time of the conference. I'm getting updated by the progress from BINGO e-mails flowing out from Bella Center and from various news sources. That is actually somewhat better than being "trapped" inside Bella Center, although it would have been nice to have a chit-chat with Sarkozy and the guys over there...
Stay in tune for the grande finale!
/Andreas

Deal or no deal?

The Danish have now given up the efforts of trying to roll out a draft to a deal. It's more and more evident that a deal now, if any, has to be settled among the heads of state that has begun to arrive.
I have just recieved another official draft in my mailbox and will analyze that. I'll be back.
/Andreas


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No agreement - China

From today, there will be virtually no access to the Bella Center for NGOs. According to Berlingske Tiderne, China has just stated that they will not be part of any agreement.
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/kina-ingen-aftale-i-koebenhavn
And it shure is a very locked up situation. But, it aint over until the fat lady sings....
/Andreas


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Last day for Sweco at Bella Center, but will continue blogging

Starting tomorrow, they are restricting access to Bella Center by slashing the number of observers down from 7000 to 90. That will obviously mean that we have to continue to report from the outside. Which, as we have stated before, is in a way easier since you can monitor webcasts and follow multiple media simultaneously. Breaking news is that the demonstrations this morning resulted in a few hundred demonstrants arrested. Demonstrations have now eased and the police made a deal with the demonstrants; letting them hold a demonstration tonight if they promised to step back from the Bella Center.

The COP15 President, Connie Hedegaard, unexpectedly resigned a couple of hours ago and is now replaced by Lars Lökke Rasmussen, the Danish Prime Minister. The official version is that this is appropriate considering the vast number of heads of state coming for the final day of the meeting. Other sources are pointing to the fact that she was too controversial and without result in this late hour.

Why argue!

I do not understand why focus inside COP-15 still is on the details and in the arguing. I definitely do not understand why people that are not involved in the political decisions try to get in? We will never have better decisions than the majority of politicians that we send in can understand and communicate!

I understand that this meeting is more extreme in many senses since there are so many eyes and ears focusing on the events. What an opportunity for some to make political statements and act on the lack of transparency that evokes frustration. Why fight on figures when we know how to develop sustainable systems. Why not just start a change and build businesses and social relations by transferring knowledge and know-how. Some of the negative feedback that I heard around me is more or less the same feeling as when my daughters are tired and hungry -they collapse in frustration and walks away! Today it is said that Venezuela and others will walk out and join the “masses” outside Bella Centre, we will see what happens!

We and hopefully the majority of environmental engineering firms, together with experts in authorities and ministries, know that the solutions are not always embedded in targets. Solutions have already been developed by evolution and by humans since some groups of people have seen the negative impacts of a hybris. Knowledge is so obvious that some do not see it!

-You find these solutions along the roadside. Did you know that a Beech, let say 20 meters high with a diameter of 12 meters produce solutions that are not appreciated by everyone. [A quite common three in our part of the world and probably less effective in terms of ecosystem services than trees that produce more green areas are in warmer climates]. Did you know that under a sunny Nordic day, a tree like this produce ecosystem services [with 600 000 leaves, 1200 square meters of leafs] as for example filtering of 9 400 litres of water, that could cause problem in the pipes. With a CO2-concentration 0.03%, 36 000 cubic meters of air must pass the system where the leaves filtrate and capsulate particles like bacteria, spores, dust and other dangerous substances such as nanoparticles from the roads etc. Finally, 400 litres of water humidify the air, how pleasant it could be sitting under a three and discuss solutions rather in a crowded Bella centre. If the trees does not fit into the planners vision of the concrete city, but you still doesn’t want to have problems with water etc. you must replant 2000 young trees with a economic cost in Sweden that might be estimated to almost 160 000 Euros. Why not use existing knowledge and just do it?

The future is green and driven by photosynthesis! Get more info: www.eac-arboriculture.com

The risk of non-sustainable climate deals

Whatever the outcome of COP 15, technological development and innovation will take us rapidly towards a more carbonefficient era. But the challenge is more complex than just stabilizing greeenhouse gasses in the atmosphere-the solutions must also be sustainable. There is a huge risk, when big money is put to work within in a short time frame, that we overrule important social and ecological factors and create new problems solving the one in focus.

The Norwegian delegation at COP 15 has the REDD program ( UN's program on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests) as one of their priorities, and our government has promised to contribute with 3 billion NOK a year for tropical forest preservation. Important questions arise: How will the coming investements in developing countries affect local communities? the biodiversity? and how to avoid corruption?

The Guardian has adressed some of these questions earlier this automn http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/05/un-forest-protection

I also recommend Regnskogfondets blog:

http://regnskogfondet.blogspot.com/2009/12/dagens-pressebrief-i-kbenhavn-lars.html

My message is that we have to keep on with our work and capasity building on sustainable engineering and design along all three dimensions- economic, ecological and social - to get the climate solutions right.

There's something rotten in the state of Denmark..

I have saved that title for some special post. This can be that post. Started todays journey in Lund at 0500. Ended up at the venue facing another endless queue. Since I have a plane to catch at 12 i couldn't risk getting stuck in that line and I'm now heading for Kastrup and will follow negotiations via webcasts. There are just too many NGOs here for the system to work.

Even for those inside the building it is almost inpossible to follow the process since repeated and swift changes are comnon and extra passes are often needed (that should have been picked up earlier..) Clearly, that should have been predicted by the UNFCCC or signalled by the local organizers.

Let's hope for no riots and no injuries today.
Andreas

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Time to start deliver

It is time to deliver solutions and action!

As you already know we create values by delivering advanced, creative solutions and services. We hope that you take your time and read comments, links and earlier posts in this blog. There is still time to report on progress and positive development, some parts of the discussions and documents are as we have reported already very positive.

We take part in the suggested transferring of knowledge that has to increase according to a consensus in the COP-15 discussions. SWECO and other firms provide knowledge and consulting services in the fields of engineering, environmental technology and architecture since long. We do understand the relationship between biodiversity, water, landscape and built societies. And we think in systems. We see opportunities in the ecosystem services that sometimes still are neglected when discussions on how to cope with a changed environment takes place.

We work more and more on strategically environmental planning and monitoring and evaluation frameworks, we do believe that we have lots to learn by all those customers that we cooperate with and we look forward to develop new ideas under the mitigation and adaptation processes that has to follow the meeting in Copenhagen.

Since we know that we have up to 2000 readers, we are eager to learn more on projects where nature and technology are integrated. Why don´t you send us some interesting examples of for example integrated farming, or other systems that work well and sustainable.

One example that soon will disappear at the horizon outside Copenhagen is my new favourite among sailing ships “Tre Kronor” http://www.briggentrekronor.se/

Jonas

Chaotic Monday

Yesterday I attended the conference at the Bella Center in Copenhagen. It was a great but exhausting experience. I started queuing up just after 0700 o'clock for accreditation (1 hour before the accreditation opened). If I had arrvied 15 minutes later I would have been amongst the estimated 10000 that not got in. After 3 hours in a queue that barely moved, with probably less than 100 people in front of med, I finally got in.

There I met my friends and former colleges from Bellona, and got information about the events if the day. At 1130 the meeting for the Ministers and State Secretaries was planned to start and I decided to listen in on this event.

For those of you who that have read the newspaper, you know that the negotiation broke down because the African nations refused to negotiate any further before the rich countries made a commitment to continue the Kyoto protocol regardless of the outcome of COP15. They did not show up at the meeting, and all kind of rumors were in circulaton. We were wating, as well as all the remaining Ministers. For instance the Norwegian minister Solheim sat there waiting for at least 2 hours. So instead of waiting I tried to attend the side event with Al gore and Støre, but the room was aleady full. But I was not alone outside. One of Norways biggest TV-channels did not make it in either... With the main negotiation delayed for an unspecified time, I waited for a while before I had to leave to reach my plane home.

So what did I learn? It's less than a week left, and some parties are still discussing how emissions should be measured.. i.e. they are not even close to discuss targest and obligations. It's still two different draft texts and as it says on the front page on one: "The Chair would like to stress that nothing will be agreed until everything else is agreed."

But the rumors say that Denmark will submit a new draft text on Wednesday morgning as an attempt to discuss one instead of two documents. I wish Denmark good luck and hope this one is better than the previous one.

5hrs wait to get in...

This morning I was delayed in Lund and with some train problems I arrived at Bella Center at 10.00. After some confusion they rolled out information that there was a 5hours wait for observers wanting to enter the building. Well, although I'm from Norrland and used to (and dressed for) cold conditions that would be a waste of time. I also worry that many of the people in queue will risque health problems in the minus degrees.
I'm heading for the city center to check out some of the alternative climate forums instead. And tomorrow I'll be around by 06....
/Andreas


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Progress is needed

The negotiations have lost speed the last days due to procedural issues. Today will be of uttermost importance for the outcome of COP15. The pressure is high and needs to stay high if a deal is to be settled. But if it gets too high, psychology moves in and irrational behaviour can determine key decisions. Let's see. I will be around for the action. Stay tuned.
Andreas


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Many positive business news

I've just attended a very informative and positive side-event organized by Businesseurope. The topic was "A successful international agreement - contributions and expectations from European business" and what a line-up on stage (from left to right):

Jos Delbeke, European Commission Deputy Director-General for the Environment
Maud Olofsson, Swedish vice Prime Minister
Ulla Hamilton, Deputy Mayor of Stockholm
Nick Campbell, Chairman of the ICC Climate Change Task Force
Philippe de Buck, Director-Genreal of Businesseurope and
Hans Stråberg, CEO Electrolux

The gave a unified view that climate change must and can be tackled by business regardless of the outcome in Copenhaguen, although the also agreed that we all would benefit by a strong agreement. Which Maud Olofsson definitely thought was possible.

The very skilled team here from Svenskt Näringliv (lead by Birgitta Resvik) had also carried out the impossible task of negotiating some extra secondary badges which will enable me to continue to report from COP15. At least for another two days. After that I think we will have to give priority to Obama et al.
Stay tuned.
Andreas

Sweco talking to COP15 president!

I just got the change to ask a question to the COP15 president, Connie Hedegaard, whether they are, at this point, discussing to extend the time frame for this conference. She was very clear that that is not an option! She told all NGOs that it is very important that we do not release any pressure on this meeting at this moment. We have to keep up the pressure in order to seal an ambitious deal! This will be some interesting last days.

NOW!?

Back from a short trip to Copenhagen, I'm looking forward to take up the newspapers again and try to understand what's going on. That was certainly difficult in a boiling Copenhagen. A part from being the spot of the ongoing negotiations, the whole city is transformed into a global stage for all kind of groups and individuals who want to be part of history - Now. In a jungle of banners, "globe-art" and acitivites, I got the impression of ten thousands of excited people tumbling around trying to zoom in what's most hot ongoing event. Just Now. The word NOW is everywhere, on the banners, in flyers and speakers. It all left me with a feeling of doubt- is it really going to be NOW? Exciting days ahead.. Let's hope there is a leader or two, who just cannot miss this opportunty to write her name in history. Now.

Some photos and end of access

I've been requested to snap some photos of the action here at Bella Center. So I did and they are not optimal to show in this blog. You are referred to this webpage if you are interested.

Unfortunately, this seems to be the last day for almost all of the observers (including me). Starting tomorrow they are severely limiting access to the meeting due to capacity and security reasons. Although I feel sorry for people travelling from all around the globe to attend the meeting, the COP15 delegates have an important task to carry out and I definitely think they are cutting at the right end. Better to save space for negotiators and heads of state than observers. I will get back with more details when I have them.

Latest rumor is that Obama is going to offer slightly higher emission reductions when he is arriving on Thursday or Friday. From what I've heard I doubt it will be enough, but nothing is clear here in Copenhagen.
Stay tuned.
Andreas

Bella Center at its limit...

I just got news that there are 10,000 people trying to get in to the conference. Which I guess means that if you're not in yet, you not going to get in today. I would advise not even trying to get out to The Bella center area today. In here, discussions among the observers are focused on the status of the process and the upcoming restrictions for access.
Stay tuned
Andreas


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The midway report and info on ocean acidification

The midway report on the conference that came on Saturday says that progress was made and according to delegates the texts on how to supply and transfer new green technologies to developing nations were more or less agreed upon. There has also been progress in the formulations on how forests will be used. There is still a split on how to fund and share the burden of emissions. The industrial countries criticized the draft agreement that I linked to earlier since it is too weak in the demands on major developing countries.

The last day: s seminars that I attended was about Ocean Acidification
Up to 30% of the CO2 that is added from human activities absorbs to the seas. Thanks to this phenomenon the impact of greenhouse gas on climate is limited. But since CO2 dissolves in seawater there will be carbonic acid instead. The phenomenon is called ocean acidification. Many organisms that build their shells and skeletal will be threatened if the levels of carbon acid is increasing too much. There will be some sort of shift in the marine ecosystems and I must say that the reports on this issue were new for me. Are water issues always late coming on agendas, and why?

This Monday I will meet some very interesting people, and together we will discuss how Sweden and firms like SWECO can help in the suggested transfer of knowledge that is formulated at COP-15. I will report on this some other time!


Jonas

US Secretary of Energy Steven Chu

Today I went to listen to US Secretary of Energy Steven Chu and Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of IPCC at the bright Green Conference Center, both inspiring and interesting to listen to.

Dr. Pachauri was referring to the work of IPCC showing that the world's emissions need to peak before 2015 to meet the 2-degrees target, only 5 year from now, and urged people to start grass root movements to put pressure on politicians and stakeholders.

But I want to focus on the highlights from Steven Chu. His main message was that to achieve our energy and climate goals, we need to:

1. Use and generate energy more efficiently
2. Unlock the full potential of renewables
3. Transform transportation
4. New approaches to nuclear power
5. Carbon Capture and Storage
6. Improve energy storage

His examples of the first category was energy efficient buildings and exploiting the interfaces between sub systems to reduce energy consuption. For task two he used as examples wind power and geothermal energy as heat reservoir. These examples prove to me that Sweco is very well positioned for contributing with sustainable solutions.

He was furthermore saying that:

"The energy and climate problems should capture our imaginations and lift our aspirations. It is the most important challenge that science and technology must solve for ourselves and our porsperity". Then he referred to Martin Luther King, 1967:

"..We are now faced with the fact, my friends, that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history, this is such a thing as being too late."

My hope is therefore that Mr. Chu was giving us a small hint before President Obama's arrival in Copenhagen saying that the intention of the US is not to be too late with the work of a global agreement for emissions reduction; the issue which COP15 is all about..

A green-tech haven

A guest appearance from Mikael af Ekenstam at the Sweco Norway exhibition at Bright Green:

The Bright Green exposition is a melting pot of exhibitions ranging from plug-in-hybrid vechicles to oil-from-algae producers. The multitude of cutting-edge technology presented shows that engineers has the solutions needed, now it's up to the politicians to pave way for them.

But the really inspiring aspect of the exposition is the visitors. Despite the high-tech focus this is not your typical trade fair with tech-geeks circling the room. As today is an off-day in the negotiations Bright Green has drawn a crowd that represents a cross section of those that follow the negotiations. My day have included meets with Danish students, American financial analysts, a Nigerian politician, Japanese journalists and the Mexican ambassador, all eager to learn more about sustainability in the world of tomorrow. I'm sure that this exposition has done a lot for convincing the visitors that there are solutions to the problems.

Bright Green

As up to 100 000 demonstrators were marching towards the Bella Center, the coporate Europe presented their technological solutions at The Bright Green Expo. Anders Fogh Rasmussen opened the event stating that the clean energy sector is expected to grow into a 1600 billion euro industry by 2020. The latest estimates, presented this week by WWF, is 50% higher than five years ago. Should anything similar to the progressive draft deal that was presented yesterday, still stand at the end of the climate conference, this potential might be even larger.

Innovation Norway has organized a common Norwegian foyer at the Expo, "Norway powered by nature", where Sweco Norge is one of 8 exhibitors. REC, Aker Solutions, Statoil and Hafslund being some of the others. The foyer was opened by Crown Prince Håkon yesterday, flanked by our Frøydis (Espedal) holding a plate with a melting piece of the Folgefonna glacier. You might have got a glimse of her, at the NRK evening news.

The Crown Prince also appeared at the stage together with the neighbour royalties at the official opening of Bright Green. At this occasion, I was impressed by his strong commitment and good talk. Thinking that it might well be that his leadership, although symbolic, could become a more powerful inspiration to the battle against climate change, than the leadership of any national politcian we have heard so far.

Here's the article about the the renewable market: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g7gjRltYaokGdjFT_wTYHsiRoTkA

Late news!

It is late, and it was getting dark half a day ago!

I just came home to the hotel after several social events, the last one at the Brig "Tre Kronor", wonderful and perfect! http://www.briggentrekronor.se/content/view/64/

If you have the possibility, enter her and use the Brig to communicate environmental solution, a marine brig is a sustainable solution.

After 6 full days I am tired and I want to develop all the ideas that have been born in Denmark. Ok, it is in the middle of the night but I want to report the latest words from delegates that do negotiate. I met people that came out from the negotiation areas at 01 am. representing the developing countries and we walked through the cold night. The adaptation team are still working at this very time 02. 00 am. The party members said that there will be no binding agreement but just political agreements with targets and aims. They were sure!

Maybe this is good enough since delegates from more than 190 countries will come home whit so many ideas to solve the problems that solutions are only actions away! Why not focus on solutions rather than the problems that we all do know exists.

Jonas

Half way, draft on the table

We have already reached half way through the COP15 and a lot of action has passed but we are just starting to feel the heat. Regardless of the outcome this is already a historic conference. Instead of summarizing my halftime impressions I will try to speculate on the possible outcome. There are quite a few scenarios, actually. I will reveal my candidate in the end of this post.
Firstly, we have the obvious one which I will divide into three subcategories.

1. An agreement
a, A new legally binding agreement with all parties as stakeholders and ambitious emission targets in accordance with science.
This is obviously not very probable. Too much will have to be sorted out within only one week. Many countries do not bring the mandate from back home to sign an agreement with these tough targets. NOT PROBABLE.
b, A fluffy agreement signed by all parties of the convention with mainly empty words.
This alternative is obviously easy to achieve but will leave many delegates and the majority of the people currently marching in Copenhagen with great frustration. The critique would be massive and none of the negotiators would want to leave Denmark with this alternative,not to speak of the hosts and organizers. Since many disputes still are unsolved, this might be an easy way out. In the short run. POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE.
c, An agreement without the major obstacles (e.g. US, China, India, AOSIS group and other opposing parties).
This would not be preferable since it would reduce impact and credibility of the resulting protocol. But it might be a way to, in the final moments, sidestep parties that might threaten to wreck the entire agreement. QUITE POSSIBLE.

2. No agreement at all
This would of course be a drawback, but might be seen as(and also be) a better alternative than an empty agreement. Though it would be the anti-climax of the millenium.... NOT PROBABLE BUT POSSIBLE.

3. COP bis
This has happened once before in the history of UNFCCC. In 2000, COP 6 in the Hague, Netherlands, the negotiations collapsed in the final hours after a major controversy regarding whether you should be able to account for carbon sinks in forests and agricultural lands. Jan Pronk, the COP 6 president, suspended COP 6 and it was then resumed 6 months later in Bonn, Germany, named COP 6 bis. During this extra meeting, agreements were made on several matters. This was a successful solution and could be very plausible when it comes to the fate of COP 15 aswell. Reasons for this are that countries need to get back home and get support for tough demands and it will also buy the COP process some extra needed time. POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE.

What do you think? Or hope for?
Andreas

DRAFTS COP-15

I am glad to read those draft texts from the fifth day, what do you think?

http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/draftcoretext.pdf
http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/awgkpchairstext111209.pdf

Jonas

Politicians and blacker limousines, action!

My experiences of writing policies and strategies says that when responsible politicians enter the scene there are less room for conflicting argumentations in seminars and open spaces. Staff and different expert officers can act upon manuscripts in a way that is more critical since they do not risk to loose voters and since the details are in focus.

Politicians do have to deliver something back. And now, when Denmark is filled with lifeguards, headsets and even blacker limousines, the pace of negotiating is increasing, I’m sure!

Economically richer countries that want more from the lesser economically developed countries must understand that development, driven by photosynthesis and smart sustainable solutions with green technology will boost the economy on a global scale. We have lots to offer, lots to sell! Yesterday I met a Swedish businessman and we discussed his new quite economical poor customers, buying heavy high-tech CO2-neutral products on the other side of the world since they develop for the future –why use unsustainable solutions they say. The poorest of countries do actually invest for the future. We, who have had the possibility to develop things in peace and security, will now make business out of the climate to. So why put the pressure on the poorest when we will win once more.

I saw what was made yesterday, -several business opportunities for us, filled agendas, shared business cards and ideas, and, “behold, it was very good. There was evening and there was morning, a sixth day!” I am a humanist, but I must say that this morning it felt good to quote genesis. By doing so our words are spread on hit lists and since we do want to discuss how we can spread good solutions I am more than glad to quote any famous and respected book.

Today I will attend a meeting with Dr. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri who serves as the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2002. Later on I will visit the Bright Green exhibition http://www.swedishtrade.se/vara-kontor/europa/danmark/aktuella-projekt/bright-green-expo/ where SWECO among others present our knowledge http://www.swedishtrade.se/PageFiles/166535/World%20premiere%20of%20SymbioCity%20Scenarios.pdf I hope to see some of you there, and if you refer to this blog when you see me I will send you a gift for free!

Finally I must do some advertising for a sustainable solution made on wood and open for guests and events occasionally. You can always admire her (till the 17th I believe) from the quay, just besides hotel Admiral (Toldbodgade 24-28 - DK-1253 København K – Denmark), close to Nyhavn in central Copenhagen. Please visit the website and look how photosynthesis and captured CO2 turned solar energy into fixed energy in organic material (oak and other material) in a navy brig called Tre Kronor. http://www.briggentrekronor.se/content/view/64/

Cancellations gives new opportunities, Ecosystem-based adaptation

Yvo meeting was cancelled!

In this moment I therefore attend an IUCN meeting on Ecosystem-based adaption. Ecosystems that are developed and managed well is a accessible solution for the most vulnerable countries, but one example was from Roslagen in Sweden where agricultural practices have been changing, not least due to adaption against fungal pathogens. UNFCCC is about us all!

Other examples of High Nature Values that is a natural response to climate change came from a new report ISBN 978-2-8317-1215-4, probably downloadable from IUCN: s homepage.

Before leaving the room! Rumours say there will be a draft on a "protocol" already this afternoon, but rumours also claim that last night Mr Lumumba Di-Aiping, representing the Group of 77 left a meeting in anger. He thinks the COP-15 "conference will be wrecked by negative intentions of some people," (TV2 DR). We will see what happens.

But I know that people do work to find good formulations that can apply to a majority. For example, I know that 30 groups of EU-staff work on their specific "chapters", and at my hotel the lobby and corridors are full of energy!

Friday

Up early! Ironing my clothes! A meeting with Yvo de Boer, currently the executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In afternoon ecosystem services and how to use biomimicry in solutions will be discussed, at least if I decide.

I must say that there seems to be a widening gap between north and south, at least in the elevator-discussions. This is a reflection I feel bad about! "Are we not able to think for ourselves, one indignated delegate said at TV2 denmark"

In the late afternoon there is a reception at the sailing brig "Tre kronor". Bright green ideas will be in focus. http://www.briggentrekronor.se/content/view/64/ I must say, solutions are more positive than limitations, a good ending of the fifth day!

Day 4 roundup press briefing http://unfccc.int/2860.php look for "Highlights of press briefing 10 December"

SWECO

New friends whom I met during this intense and positive conference day ask me what we do at SWECO. A “blogging” venture like this could be used for many things – One is marketing our profile as much as possible. But Andreas and I have tried to use the web for reflection and invitation to discussions. We have a lot to learn from experiences from all over the world, errors in systems can often be solved by looking at them from outside, that is our experience at least. Marketing is necessary but not in this blogg -not now. However, for those who have started to follow the blog all over the world, and for Jean who asked, you could read more about us at http://www.swecogroup.com/

On a daily basis, we provide consulting environmental engineering and god architectural solutions among other things. We write monitoring and evaluation frameworks (M&E: s), we compose strategies for both governments and NGO: s. We are about 5 500 people working together with references from more than 80 countries only the last year. Solutions for a better society is what we want to deliver! Our clients come from both the public and private sector.

Our products can be exemplified with new eco-cities as Caofeidian in China, flood mapping in Mölndal, and mapping of CO2 impact from different industries. We optimize routes and we work on all scales to find a way for an even better future.

We have a helpline where companies and local governments can turn with different climate questions. Do not hesitate to send us your climate question for free. We might be able to give you the best answer direct or in a developed project!


climatehelpdesk@sweco.se


Jonas

I had to admit, it was difficult to explain in the lobby the fact that the two buildings on the other side of Oresund (seen when landing at the airport) was the former nuclear power plant Barseback. –“So close to Copenhagen, and the Swedes complain at the coal power plants of Denmark” I told them that we closed the last reactor in Barseback 2005. -but you are planning to intensify nuclear power production! I don’t know where we are supposed to open up plants. But I do know that it is difficult to discuss alternatives and be pedagogic about all the questions on energy systems when they are compared side by side.

The environmental goals can only be met if system analysis is applied on the question. Sweden does have high ambitions and this was discussed in the lobby. “You are aiming at a 40 percent reduction in 2020”...complete carbon neutrality in 40 years”. --- Do we have to wait so long I answered? The Swedish government will achieve its goal by increased nuclear power, wind power and vehicles run by fossil free fuels. I believe that we can be carbon neutral earlier than in 40 years and maybe by other means of techniques!

I feel that this meeting COP-15 is about diffusion of ideas, theories and technology together whit a common target on emissions. The question about emissions is on the political agenda, but almost out of sight right now. Discussion among NGO: s are about how to solve problems already identified. The solutions, ideas and technology will be spread in geography in extreme after the conference. That is my most clear reflection!

Tired, I paused and went to Klimaforum09 in the City, -The Peoples Climate Summit where Climate Justice and tourism where discussed. For those that can not attend the COP-15 there are plenty of activities and seminars to visit the coming 8 days. SWECO will be part on the Bright Green Expo the 12-13 December.
www.climaforum09.org & http://www.brightgreen.dk/

Sea-side view, from the hotel!

Sea-side at Bella, not yet!

It could be a significant new view if we had to sum up Cop15 without action. Around Bella centre, red lights are placed 7 meters above sea level. The new waterline if the ice on Greenland melts. 25 kilometres of red lights is the statement, visitors can’t miss. The end of this week seems to be focusing on “softer” issues as saving the tropical forests and biodiversity. Next week, people seams to be full of emission-rates and shared
responsibilities. I will focus on eco-system-based adaption that uses biodiversity and ecosystem services strategically the next two days! This adaption is about coastal defence, management of wetlands, forest restoration etc.

Two links I want to share with you! to be updated and to be inspired

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01tHqt7tP9M & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyGGe_f-hQk&feature=channel

See you tomorrow, -I look forward to hear more about the new markets that will develop in sectors that can deliver carbon reduction, what are for example the potential in agriculture, or in the construction sector? Can buildings deliver carbon reduction?

Business is needed

Companies are sometimes blamed for causing climate change and then for trying to profit on the effects. The truth is, however, that without the involvement of businesses neither mitigation nor adaptation can be taken care of. So COP15 is also the arena for Jonas and myself to talk about the Sweco solutions to people from around the world. The consultants at Sweco know a lot about how to reduce GHG emissions and we also have broad competence in adaptation and analysis. By informing about and offering our services to whoever may be in need of them, we feel that we have a broader purpose at this meeting than just to follow the negotiations.

I'm currently back i Östersund for some other missions but I will be back in Copenhagen on Sunday to stay until the hopefully not so bitter end.
Stay tuned.
Andreas

Higher sea levels close by

I was discussing north and south earlier. Yesterday a delegate whom I met from one of the 10 poorest countries had to pay 15 Danish kronor (more than 2 US dollar) per glass of tapped/water. COP-15 is a market for entrepreneurs!

Since land and atmosphere close to sea is warmer, -ocean levels rise. Fresh water is threatened, -soon fresh water might be really expensive.

This rising sea-level problem is a threat also in the north. A world that is warmer is synonymous with higher sea level. We did some work for the municipality of Vellinge, focusing on the Falsterbo canal, just one hour from Bella centre south-east.

Higher sea levels, is not just about tropical islands! What ever causes the changes, these global phenomena should be one of the most interesting common problems to solve, let’s learn from each other!

Go to Google earth and look for "Falsterbo kanal"

We promote biogas

Crowded, and I’m tired. The last experiences from the second day were alarming. I spent 5 hours for a study tour, just to see old and ineffective technique for gas production. One hour on a bus, southwest and I was really expecting something doable in those countries that were represented on the tour, I know that both the Nepalese and Colombians knew much more about this methaneproduction than those who tried to be pedagogic in a cold, dark night in Denmark. The knowledge on biogas production and systems for integrated planning where rural and urban societies are bounded together is something that for example Sweco works with every day. Biogas is on the lips when we discuss business here in Copenhagen, It´s a pity if "customers" believe that Scandinavian tecnology and system thinking is from the 1980: s. If the tour had been on Swedish ground the delegates should have seen modern use and re-use of resources.

Organisations and probably the host country have understood that there is an end of COP-15. Delegated officers have been sharpening the pens and there is no more room for lobbying.

The Danish proposal for a climate compromise was leaked yesterday afternoon. Rumours say that developing countries are not satisfied at all. Especially not since democracy is about listening to others.

http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Temaer/Oevrige_temaer/2009/Klima/Klimanyheder/Nyheder/20091208185621.htm

A run for events, sometimes we need to slow down

I have to run for the study tour "Energy out of nothing".. Do you have new ideas on how to make energy out of something else?

http://www.energytours.dk/index.php/what-to-visit

BINGO for Change!

For those who thought that leaders were just playing in Copenhagen, - BINGO means Business and industry non-governmental organizations! These two weeks is not a lotto-like game of chance!

I thought of some critique on data posted at the entrance. I hear critique from economists whom I know. It is a non question from now among those I see, and for what I hear. If there is a “climate gate”, so be it – there will be a change in modus operandi!

More than 110 leaders are already on a list of participant. Local and global issues are discussed in a positive manner. Russia is on negotiation mode, a delegate from Saudi will see “gate” investigated, transparency seems to be the only way, and solutions on environmental problems are on the agenda. This conference is a window of opportunity, where changes of broken systems are discussed! As I wrote earlier, levelling CO2, or climate gases in general, is a problem, at least if we don’t put it back in to a system. With a greener environment, more photosynthesis, and development of integrated systems (for example greener cities, sustainable cities) that captures carbon, we might be able to play with fossil fuel untill the can is empty, but why?

The balance between praxis and political discussions is not a problem when it comes to COP-15. Two minutes ago I discussed rural development in Sweden and Ethiopia with a man representing the Church of Sweden. But this is not just a theoretical event, next week the sum of learning hours is spread around the globe (190 countries). Scandinavian ideas will probably have a special place in the discussions post COP-15. I recently discussed the development of strategies for the Kagera River Basin, one of the tributaries to Lake Victoria, which concerns Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. It is about promotion on development of investment strategies in the water sector. We are already working on a big change!
http://www.swecogroup.com/en/Sweco-group/About-Sweco/Global-presence1/Africa/

Yes I will use less words next time!

This just in....

I am currently at the BINGO briefing where the international business and industry stakeholders inform and discuss what is happening during COP15.

We are now up to 110 state of heads coming to the last days of the meeting. This must be some kind of record.

US is ramping up their presence. A lot of high level people will attend, like EPA boss Lisa Jackson, energy minister Chu and a secret guest next wednesday (my guess is that his initials are AG...)

Russia is the first country that are signalling that they want to move into negotiation mode. Other countries will follow.

Due to the immense interest they will probably restrict the number of attendants to the plenary sessions. There is simply not enough space... Let's see what happens.
Stay tuned
Andreas



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Location:Fælleddiget,Köpenhamn,Danmark

First day - Hope and hold!

This gathering is all about meeting people. Best spontaneous meeting today was with Mr M Raviua, ministry of planning and development, Mozambique. In the cloakroom! No need to visit seminars! Suddenly I was totally involved in a discussion about needs and opportunities. Several ad-hoc meetings later I left the Bella Centre filled with hope for the following days.

Finally: How difficult can it be? Who dimensioned the registry and places to sit in plenar? I had to jump my way through herds of people sitting on the floor with lap-tops open reporting back home. The queues where endless!

Opening plenary

I've just visited the opening plenary and I would like to share some initial reflections:
Firstly, it is really weird to sit at a meeting were the countries of the world are gathered. Secondly, the topic that is discussed is nonetheless than how to avoid the potential disastrous effects of global warming. Suddenly it all becomes real. I had the same feeling when I visited China and saw the tremendous urbanization with my own eyes. Maybe that is something human, that we cannot really realize until we experience things. What I witnessed was when the small island states, in a desperate voice, called for immediate action since their countries are disappearing and people are dying in front of their eyes. Other groups and individual countries made new promises of targets that will have to be analyzed for impact and credibility. But they all communicated one shared thing. The sense of urgency but also hope. We have a good chance now and as the representative for the LDC (the Least Developed Countries) from Lesotho said: We will work day and night these two weeks in order to seal an ambitious deal.
Now I'm off to a seminar on renewable energy.
Stay tuned.
Andreas

A variety of options

The COP15 has kicked off and Jonas and I are in place for the action. There was some initial delay and the security and registration process was definitely a bottleneck. However, the delegates know the importance and extent of the meeting and have been very patient.

Apart from the official meeting schedule and the parallell exhibitions, there are many side-events taking place. We are currently optimizing our schedules in order to follow what would be of greatest interest from a Sweco perspective. However, we are also open for, and would welcome, input from you who are following this blog. Please have a look at the side-events overview and if there is something related to projects you are doing or planning, please drop a line as a comment and maybe we could fit in a visit to that specific event.

Freshwater and COP-15

Freshwater and COP-15, time to pay back -or to help positive development

Only a few percent of our common water resource is freshwater. I have been looking for seminars, sessions and items that discuss H20 more specific. It is hard to find, maybe it is considered to be a ubiquity for those who planned the conference? One specific problem is salt water intrusion. It is a problem related to a changing climate. I have not yet seen any existing information on this life essence, freshwater, on the agenda. Besides coal, water must be one of the big issues to discuss! In one of the opening speeches we could hear that especially the least developed countries could expect grand economic resources transferred to them for mitigation and adaptation investments. This is of course not just an act of solidarity! One man said, "investments to meet new needs are certainly expensive, but, there are enormous economic and social benefits for those who can be part of the development". The best available practice or the most effective techniques to halter for example saltwater intrusion, is still missing!

I don’t care much about the criticism of the input data on the global phenomena “climate change”!

There are unjust differences in the world, and the agenda in Copenhagen is interesting because it is a forum where many people come together and ideas can be developed. Global warming is one of the hottest political issue at least for two weeks, global warming could be more pressing over the coming years, and the threats have been provoking enough so that political leaders and others from all over the world will meet. If we are proactive, if we dare to advance our policies, strategies and financial instruments, then the most promising and cleaner energy technologies could be implemented and spread to both north and south. But we do need the politicians from both local and global level to have a common understanding of the problems, therefore we meet.

Generalisations are needed, the details might not bee important – I think it is interesting enough to understand that it is unnecessary to use fossil fuels and that we can capture more energy if we make use of our knowledge.

One positive example is the development of effective greenhouse solutions. Next week, seminars will be full of people that did not know all of the possibilities!

Positive news

As usual, I follow the ever increasing flood of climate related reports. The news are mainly negative when it comes to climate change consequences as well as global emission trends. But there are reports emerging with a brighter message, as these two:

1. A new study conducted by Cambridge researchers indicates that radical cuts in GHG emissions will be cheaper than previously anticipated. Alex Bowen, a climate policy expert at the London School of Economics concludes that for England food prices will increase by one percent, electronics by two percent and electricity by 15 percent. Read more about this report here.

2. The consultants at McKinsey & Company have studied the cost of a transition to a global green economy. The results are interesting and is far more optimistic than previous studies calculating the cost. For only 0.02 percent of the global GNP, which equals 75 billion euro or about 15 dollars per world citizen, a sustainable future could be a reality. The difference from previous studies from the IPCC or the Stern report is due to McKinsey's inclusion of large, positive side effects from climate investments. Read the news here.

Jonas and I will be on site in Copenhagen on Monday morning.
Stay tuned.

Andreas

Business and Biology

Modernisation of old infrastructure and the brand new modern design/constructions of urban and rural areas can incorporate solutions that strengthen our ability to handle negative effects caused by climate changes, what ever caused them. If ecosystems are strong, if we help nature itself and if we do understand that the built areas are part of the whole, soon there will be more action and development in the right direction. Biodiversity is related to sustainable societies! Regions with good natural conditions for photosynthesis, diversity in its biological systems and social security are the winners in the long run. Good engineering can compensate and solve most of the problems of a rapidly changing climate! Biodiversity and functional ecosystems produce ecosystem services that can be developed and integrated in the economy for new and developed businesses. On Monday the 7 th. of December the International Scientific and Business Congress on Protecting the Climate will discuss a world joint Strategy, under the theme: "CleanTech: Transfer & Innovations & Investments & Manufacturing" It is about transfer of knowledge!
Read more about biodiversity under the link:
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/science/17720-biodiversity-can-mitigate-climate-change.html

Climate and solutions around us!

Is it as simple as being more "green" -in every aspect?Photosynthesis turns solar energy into fixed energy in organic material and captures CO2. Fixed energy is animal feed, food and fuels, and often a beautiful green environment that also produces values that are not on the market, not yet. Somehow I believe there is a wonderful future that is greener, at least if "green" means "Photosynthesis" and biodiversity. One of the key questions to be solved at the meeting (COP-15) next week is the responsibility by the world (north-south, we and them etc.) on emissions and new ideas that will help all of us in the end. A green development is equated with totally new or reborn ideas and can only be achieved by structural transformation of governments, officers, households, individuals, the big businesses, the big industries, firms, the "big life" and the "taken for granted". I believe that there are so many exciting and positive solutions that hide around the corner of development. Who dares wins!Let us come together and develop exciting solutions with photosynthesis for food, feed and fuels in both urban and rural areas

COP15 only days away.....

We are nearing the start of the official meetings of COP15. Other connected side-events are already going on in Copenhagen and there will be a plethora of options for us attending the meeting. I will be there during the first days, mainly in order to register and get a grip of all the information that will be distributed. I will also attend the meeting during 13-18 December. My focus will be to participate in the activities relevant for Sweco and Sweco's business. The Sweco representatives (me, Jonas and Beate) will be there having a BINGO status. BINGO stands for Business Industry Non Governmental Organisation. Our task is to observe and stand ready for informal discussions with the negotiators and media regarding what will happen during the negotiations. If you are interested in the official agenda, visit the COP15 homepage. Feel free to comment on this blog and suggest particular sessions or side-event of interest to you and I will try to see if it is possible to include them in my schedule and report back to you what the outcome was.

Following the recent media frenzy leading up to the COP15, I'm really looking forward to the actual start of the meeting. Despite what has been reported up til today, nothing has really started until now. Let it all begin :-)
/Andreas