This has certainly has been two interesting weeks. For all the COP15 delegates, for the Copenhagen, for media, for the world and for me. We knew on forehand that it would be tricky to seal an ambitious deal and everything would have to walk hand in hand, and in the right pace, in order to get it done. Looking back, we can see that there was a number of events that went wrong. I will in the end of my post provide you with some links to other analysis so you can see what it looks like in a few selected media. But this is my analysis:1. The UN system
It is a very rigid system, as usual with UN negotiations. You have to reach consensus in order to advance and if a few countries starts to obstruct, they will set the pace and run the business. The negotiations were also restricted to follow the Bali Action Plan, a roadmap set up two years ago to guide the work towards a new climate agreement.
2. Denmark lacking "fingerspitzgefühl"
You have to be aware that cultural differences are very much present in these kind of negotiations. The first major drawback was when the Developing countries started to feel neglected by the Danish COP presidency. Connie Hedegaard wanted to move quickly and a couple of creative new approaches to a deal started to surface early in week one. The G77 felt side-stepped and made this a democracy issue. If they weren't allowed to participate in the anticipated way, they would start to make trouble.... And they did. And precious time was lost.
3. No chance for "Obama effect".
He, and the other heads of state, had no real chance to resque the process, arriving only in the very final hours of the negotiations. In order for that to happen, the overall situation would have been needed to be less chaotic and an "almost-ready" deal was far from available at that time.
4. Some countries lacking real will for a deal.
The U.S. delegation had too low a bid to contribute with when they arrived, which made them look defensive from start, although the retorics differed quite a bit from that. China had long ago stated that an international binding agreement could not involve them to any significant extent.
So, how does this affect companies like Sweco? Well, Sweco shares the view that was stated by the global business community during the negotiations: An ambitious, clear and longterm deal is needed, would be very beneficial, and that companies play an important role for mitigating and adapting to climate change. At Sweco, we work with sustainable development in all our fields of expertise and clear targets, financial support and technology transfer would strengthen our mission. However, we do not see this as the end of the world, and Sweco is also providing services regarding adaptation to climate change, which will have to be dealt with even more now, lacking the deal that almost everyone wanted. There are also clear signs of a global shift present in Copenhagen that indicates that regardless the outcome of COP15, there are many countries, cities, companies and organisations that will do their share and help society to restructure in a sustainable direction, regardless of the COP15 outcome.
In conclusion, I'm disappointed but not disillusioned. There will also be new opportunities to success further down the road.
More to read:
Some analysis from The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/21/copenhagen-climate-compromise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/20/copenhagen-summit-pact-obama-verdict
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/19/copenhagen-closes-weak-deal
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/how-copenhagen-text-was-changed
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/nu-bliver-verden-varmere
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/24-timers-globalt-politisk-teater
http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MzY5ODg
Press conference before and after.
And what really happened.....
This will be my final post on this blog. Thank you all for following it thank you for all the positive feedback that we have got during these two weeks. Do not hesitate to contact any of us (fornamn.efternamn@sweco.se), do you wish to have more information on how Sweco is working with climate related business. You can also use the Sweco portal email climatehelpdesk@sweco.se. Let's all have a very merry christmas and a prosperous new 2010!
Andreas
