Half way, draft on the table

We have already reached half way through the COP15 and a lot of action has passed but we are just starting to feel the heat. Regardless of the outcome this is already a historic conference. Instead of summarizing my halftime impressions I will try to speculate on the possible outcome. There are quite a few scenarios, actually. I will reveal my candidate in the end of this post.
Firstly, we have the obvious one which I will divide into three subcategories.

1. An agreement
a, A new legally binding agreement with all parties as stakeholders and ambitious emission targets in accordance with science.
This is obviously not very probable. Too much will have to be sorted out within only one week. Many countries do not bring the mandate from back home to sign an agreement with these tough targets. NOT PROBABLE.
b, A fluffy agreement signed by all parties of the convention with mainly empty words.
This alternative is obviously easy to achieve but will leave many delegates and the majority of the people currently marching in Copenhagen with great frustration. The critique would be massive and none of the negotiators would want to leave Denmark with this alternative,not to speak of the hosts and organizers. Since many disputes still are unsolved, this might be an easy way out. In the short run. POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE.
c, An agreement without the major obstacles (e.g. US, China, India, AOSIS group and other opposing parties).
This would not be preferable since it would reduce impact and credibility of the resulting protocol. But it might be a way to, in the final moments, sidestep parties that might threaten to wreck the entire agreement. QUITE POSSIBLE.

2. No agreement at all
This would of course be a drawback, but might be seen as(and also be) a better alternative than an empty agreement. Though it would be the anti-climax of the millenium.... NOT PROBABLE BUT POSSIBLE.

3. COP bis
This has happened once before in the history of UNFCCC. In 2000, COP 6 in the Hague, Netherlands, the negotiations collapsed in the final hours after a major controversy regarding whether you should be able to account for carbon sinks in forests and agricultural lands. Jan Pronk, the COP 6 president, suspended COP 6 and it was then resumed 6 months later in Bonn, Germany, named COP 6 bis. During this extra meeting, agreements were made on several matters. This was a successful solution and could be very plausible when it comes to the fate of COP 15 aswell. Reasons for this are that countries need to get back home and get support for tough demands and it will also buy the COP process some extra needed time. POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE.

What do you think? Or hope for?
Andreas